Akhilesh’s ‘chavanni’ jab: Can Jayant Chaudhary be BJP’s trump card in western UP? | India News

Akhilesh Yadav may have intended “chavanni” as a put-down, but in Uttar Pradesh politics, old coins have a habit of changing hands and sometimes gaining value in the process. Three years after Jayant Chaudhary insisted he was no “chavanni” to be flipped, the coin metaphor has made a comeback, this time from his former ally, just as the RLD chief prepares for another electoral test in western UP.The row began when Akhilesh, without naming Jayant, said: “Humne chavanni ka rupya bana diya tha, tab bhi humein chhod kar chale gaye wo” — we turned a 25-paise coin into a rupee, yet they left us. The remark was widely seen as a jibe at the RLD chief, who had once used the same “chavanni” metaphor while rejecting speculation that he could switch sides.Jayant’s response was swift. “Siyasat ki ladai mein kuch saste shabd bolne hi the, to mera naam lekar bol dete, koi baat nahi thi,” he said. He accused Akhilesh of targeting the Jat community and added: “Main is ahankar ko dekh chuka hoon kareeb se aur maanta hoon aisa aacharan sirf patan laata hai” — I have seen this arrogance from close quarters and believe such conduct only leads to downfall.Meanwhile, Uttar Pradesh CM Yogi Adityanath also jumped in and hit back at Akhilesh, saying the language used against political opponents was making a “mockery of democracy” while describing the remark as an insult to Jayant, the legacy of Chaudhary Charan Singh and the farming community.

The exchange may look like little more than pre-election sparring. But it points to a bigger question: why is Jayant Chaudhary important enough for both sides to keep talking about him?Jayant is no longer merely a smaller ally being wooed by rival camps. He is a Union minister, heads a party that won both Lok Sabha seats it contested in 2024 and carries the Chaudhary family name into a region where Jats and farmers remain central to the political arithmetic.So, ahead of the 2027 Uttar Pradesh assembly election, the real question is less about whether Akhilesh turned a “chavanni” into a rupee and more about how much political currency that rupee can buy in western UP.

The ‘coin’ that changed hands

In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, Jayant’s RLD posted a 100% strike rate, winning both seats it contested while in alliance with the BJP.But the picture was very different in the assembly elections.In 2017, the party was reduced to a marginal force in Uttar Pradesh, winning just one seat with around 1.5% of the vote share.However, in 2022, as it entered an alliance with the Samajwadi Party, the RLD contested 33 seats and won eight, with its vote share rising to nearly 3%.But the revival was not entirely an SP creation.Jayant had already begun rebuilding his political base, and the 2020-21 farmers’ protests gave him an opportunity to re-establish himself as one of western UP’s prominent political faces. Through kisan panchayats and sustained attacks on the NDA government over the farm laws and sugarcane dues, he reconnected with sections of a Jat electorate that had moved towards the BJP after the communal polarisation following the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots.The SP-RLD alliance therefore worked both ways. The SP provided the RLD electoral space and organisational support, while Jayant offered the SP access to a Jat political network in a region where the BJP had built a formidable base.The numbers underline both the limits and value of that alliance. The RLD won eight of the 33 seats it contested in 2022, but the BJP won all 25 seats that the RLD lost.The RLD had regained relevance in pockets of western UP, but it was nowhere close to being a statewide challenger.

Akhilesh may therefore have a point when he says the SP helped turn the RLD’s “chavanni” into a rupee. But that is only half the transaction.Jayant brought the SP something that could not be created simply through seat-sharing – a political bridge to sections of the Jat electorate and the symbolic capital of the Chaudhary family.

How BJP ‘won’ RLD chief’s heart

In February 2024, the BJP and RLD announced their alliance, with the BJP offering the smaller party two Lok Sabha seats and a Rajya Sabha berth.The announcement came shortly after the Centre conferred the Bharat Ratna on former prime minister Chaudhary Charan Singh, a move Jayant publicly welcomed.He immediately posted on X: “Dil jeet liya” – won the heart.When asked whether the post meant the RLD would join the BJP, Jayant replied: “Koi kasar rehti hai? Aaj main kis muh se inkaar karoon aapke sawalon ko?” – Is there anything left? How can I deny your questions today?The RLD then contested Baghpat and Bijnor in the 2024 Lok Sabha election and won both.For the BJP, however, the bigger prize was a political intermediary who could speak to sections of the Jat electorate on behalf of the NDA while carrying the Chaudhary name.The BJP’s relationship with Jayant Chaudhary’s party and family had also undergone a dramatic reversal.In 2014, the BJP swept western Uttar Pradesh, defeating then-RLD chief Ajit Singh in Baghpat and his son Jayant in Mathura. Five years later, the father-son duo suffered another setback, losing in Muzaffarnagar and Baghpat respectively.But the saffron party subsequently lost some ground among Jats amid the farmers’ protests and the long-running demand for reservation.Jayant’s entry into the NDA therefore gave the BJP a recognised Jat face at a time when the opposition was trying to rebuild a broader farmer-minority coalition in the region.

Why Jats matter in western UP

There is no recent official caste census providing a definitive figure for the Jat population in Uttar Pradesh. Estimates commonly put Jats at around 2% of the state’s population, but their concentration in western UP gives them much greater political weight in the region. Estimates have put their share at roughly 17-18% in the area often described as “Jatland”.They heavily sway the electoral outcomes of roughly 40 to 45 assembly seats and about 10 to 12 Lok Sabha (parliamentary) seats in western UP.There is also a historical reason the Jat vote matters.

Before the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots, the politics of Chaudhary Charan Singh and later Ajit Singh rested in part on a cross-community farmer coalition involving Jats and Muslims. The riots fractured that relationship and pushed many Jats towards the BJP.The farmers’ movement briefly reopened the possibility of a Jat-Muslim political convergence that the SP-RLD alliance tried to convert into votes in 2022.Jayant’s subsequent move to the NDA, however, made that opposition combination considerably harder to sustain.For the BJP, therefore, Jayant may be useful not simply because he can attract Jats, but because his presence can also complicate the social coalition Akhilesh is trying to build.

The Jayant question in Akhilesh’s PDA strategy

That brings the RLD directly into Akhilesh’s larger PDA strategy — Pichhda, Dalit, Alpsankhyak — which seeks to bring backward classes, Dalits and minorities together while reducing the SP’s dependence on its traditional Yadav base.The 2024 Lok Sabha election demonstrated the potential of that strategy, with the SP emerging as the largest party in Uttar Pradesh.

For the BJP, the challenge ahead of 2027 will be to prevent that coalition from consolidating, particularly in regions where the party faces a more competitive opposition.Jayant is one piece of that counter-strategy.The RLD, meanwhile, appears keen to expand beyond its traditional Jat base. Its outreach has included Gurjars and other communities, while party leaders have spoken of a broader AJGR formula – Ahir, Jat, Gurjar and Rajput – along with efforts to reach Dalits and Muslims.

Why September 3 rally matters

That is why the RLD’s September 3 ‘Swabhiman Rally’ in Saharanpur mattered beyond its immediate spat with Akhilesh.The rally was an attempt to demonstrate that Jayant can still mobilise on his own political terms rather than functioning merely as a BJP ally.And Jayant used the “chavanni” controversy to turn criticism into an argument for relevance.“Jo abhi gaaliyan de rahe hain, abhi to sun lo… sahi samay par nipat lenge,” he said — those abusing us should listen for now; they will be dealt with at the appropriate time. He then added that the fact that opposition leaders kept mentioning the RLD showed that the party was working in the “right place and in the right direction.”But the more significant part of his pitch was directed at farmers, the community most closely associated with the Chaudhary family’s political legacy.Calling on farmers to identify their “true supporters” and choose a strong political advocate, Jayant said: “Farmers are in a majority and governments are made and unmade on their strength, but the hard reality is that the farmers’ lobby is weak in political corridors. Therefore, farmers need to choose a strong advocate for their cause.”This could be seen as more than a regular rallying cry. It was a reminder of what Jayant believes his political value rests on: being the voice of a region and a community larger than the RLD’s current electoral footprint.

But how much is Jayant worth?

The 2027 seat-sharing exercise could be the clearest measure yet of Jayant’s political “worth”.A meaningful allocation of seats would suggest that the BJP believes the RLD’s organisation can add value across western UP. A sharply limited share, on the other hand, would indicate that the BJP sees little reason to give Jayant enough room to build an independent base.Jayant also has something to prove.The RLD’s two Lok Sabha victories in 2024 demonstrated that the party could convert its alliance with the BJP into electoral success. The next test is whether it can build enough support beyond those two constituencies to negotiate from a position of strength.Now, ahead of the 2027 elections, the question is whether Jayant can convert that symbolic capital into enough independent political influence to remain indispensable to the BJP.